Please read this whole page carefully before reviewing the charts.  It is important to me you have a good understanding of the "whole picture".

Foreclosures abound and prices are falling!  Have we hit bottom?  If not, when will that happen?  Good questions, and yet not necessarily the most important, whether you are buying or selling.  Your immediate and long term needs and goals are always the most important considerations when deciding to buy or sell.

For instance, if you are planning to buy, consider the tax advantages of home ownership and the advantages of the freedoms you will enjoy like being able to paint your own color, plant that tree, build a boat cover or put in a pond.  Owning your home gives you security like not having to worry about being evicted and usually means you will be living in a nicer neighborhood.  While getting the best value is important and measurable, Freedom and security is even more important and impossible to measure - Priceless!

If you must sell, it is very important to understand current market conditions and market value.  Trying to sell your house for more than it is worth is not only foolish, it will lose you money in the long run. This strategy will lose you 10's of thousands of dollars and in many cases I have seen people lose over $100,000.00!  Sellers in Central Oregon are competing with short sales and foreclosures.  We are in a buyer's market and if you want to sell your house it should be priced right and/or in tip top condition.

Even though there are many other considerations in buying Real Estate other than trends, I realize everyone wants to know what the trends are including myself :)  Knowing that, I have compiled several charts specific to Central Oregon Real Estate.  There are many ways to present data and it can be easily distorted to tell the story the author wants to tell.  My goal is to provide you with unbiased information to help you make a sound decision.  My favorite charts and in my opinion, the most useful give a picture of supply and demand.  They cover all Real Estate types and depict the ratio of sold propertie to newly listed properties.  To give you an idea of what these ratios mean, consider the following:


Balanced Market
100 homes came on the market and 100 homes sold.  The ratio would be 1 (100/ divided by 100=1).  Balanced Market

Increasing Supply
300 homes came on to the market and 100 homes sold, the ratio would be 3 (300 divided by 100=3).  
Supply of homes is increasing and this should create downward pressure on prices.  As the ratio increases, the advantage to the buyer increases.

Decreasing Supply
100 homes came on to the market and 300 sold, the ratio would be .33 (100 divided by 300= .33)
Supply of homes is dwindling and this should create upward pressure on prices.  As the ratio decreases, the advantage to the seller increases.

.
Knowing the current and historic ratio of new listings to sold properties gives you an excellent glance into the future!  Keep in mind we are looking at trends and predicting the absolute bottom or top is impossible.  A wise man once said to me, "only fools and liars profess they can predict the bottom or top".  While true, we can certainly look at the trends and predict a fairly close proximity.

One last note on statistics.  They are a fantastic way to interpret what is going on around us and a priceless tool.  Statistics should never be ignored, nor should events occurring around us.  So many things can affect local Real Estae that cannot be measured or predicted.  What happens on the other side of the mountains will certainly affect what happens here in Central Oregon.  What happens in California and Washington State will affect us and what happens around the globe will as well.  Nonetheless, watch the Supply and demand ratio in Central Oregon and you will have one of the best tools available to predict upcoming trends.

There are many other ways to look at data which I will include at a later date so stay tuned and check back often for updates.  

Enjoy!

Click the Link below to view the charts:


mlsdatarev3noad.01_04_09.pdf